Intraday reforecast calculator
By eleven you know whether the forecast is holding. This tool takes the day's forecast, the actuals so far, and the ratio between them, and projects the remaining intervals, damped if you like, then runs each one through the staffing chain so you can see where the afternoon is short and by how many agents.
In the worst remaining interval, 10:30. 26.0 agent-hours across the afternoon.
- Actual so far
- Revised forecast
- Original forecast
- Running
- +10.6%
- Applied to the rest
- +8.5%
- Rest of day
- 2724 vs 2511
- Peak remaining interval
- 50 at 11:00
- Biggest gap
- 4 at 10:30
- Extra agent-hours needed
- 26.0 h
542 actual vs 490 forecast over 5 intervals.
80% damping.
Revised vs planned contacts.
Planned 47.
Agents to find in the worst interval.
Across the remaining intervals that are short.
Show the working
- Elapsed 5 intervals: 542 actual ÷ 490 forecast = 1.106.
- Applied ratio = 1 + 80% × (1.106 − 1) = 1.085; each remaining interval's forecast is multiplied by it.
- Each remaining interval runs Erlang C for 80% within 20 s, the 85% occupancy ceiling, and 20% shrinkage, before and after the reforecast.
- The remaining day was 2511 contacts and is now 2724; the intervals that are short add up to 26.0 agent-hours.
This is one reforecast, by hand. Pebble WFM reforecasts as actuals arrive and shows the gaps against the live roster. Free month, no card needed.
| Interval | Planned contacts | Revised | Planned agents | Agents now | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:30 | 174 | 189 | 44 | 48 | +4 |
| 11:00 | 187 | 203 | 47 | 50 | +3 |
| 11:30 | 182 | 197 | 45 | 49 | +4 |
| 12:00 | 164 | 178 | 42 | 44 | +2 |
| 12:30 | 139 | 151 | 35 | 38 | +3 |
| 13:00 | 115 | 125 | 30 | 33 | +3 |
| 13:30 | 101 | 110 | 27 | 29 | +2 |
| 14:00 | 100 | 108 | 27 | 29 | +2 |
| 14:30 | 111 | 120 | 29 | 32 | +3 |
| 15:00 | 129 | 140 | 33 | 35 | +2 |
| 15:30 | 148 | 161 | 38 | 40 | +2 |
| 16:00 | 162 | 176 | 40 | 44 | +4 |
| 16:30 | 165 | 179 | 42 | 45 | +3 |
| 17:00 | 156 | 169 | 39 | 43 | +4 |
| 17:30 | 138 | 150 | 35 | 38 | +3 |
| 18:00 | 115 | 125 | 30 | 33 | +3 |
| 18:30 | 92 | 100 | 25 | 27 | +2 |
| 19:00 | 73 | 79 | 20 | 22 | +2 |
| 19:30 | 60 | 65 | 18 | 19 | +1 |
How the intraday reforecast is calculated
The elapsed intervals give a ratio: actual contacts divided by forecast contacts so far. If the morning ran ten per cent hot, the simplest assumption is that the afternoon will too, and every remaining interval's forecast is scaled by that ratio.
Damping expresses how much you believe that. At 100 per cent the full ratio applies; at 50 per cent only half the deviation is carried forward, which is the better assumption when the morning was disturbed by something that will not repeat. Real-time analysts tend to use a high damping early in the day and lower it as the evidence accumulates.
Each remaining interval then runs the staffing chain for your targets, before and after the reforecast, and the difference is the agents to find or release. The peak of the remaining day is the interval to act on first.
Frequently asked questions
- How early in the day can I reforecast?
- After two or three intervals, with heavy damping. A single interval is noise. By mid-morning the ratio is usually stable enough to act on, and by lunch the afternoon peak is the only thing left to protect.
- Should I reforecast on volume or on handle time?
- Both move. This tool scales volume; if handle time is also running long, raise the handle time input to match and the agents follow. A ten per cent miss on each is a twenty per cent miss on workload.
- What do I do with the answer?
- Move breaks and coaching out of the intervals that are short, offer overtime for the afternoon peak, or release people early if the day is running cold. A workforce management tool does the reforecast continuously and shows the same gaps against the live roster.
Stop doing this one interval at a time
Pebble WFM forecasts your demand, computes the staffing requirement for every interval, builds the roster and publishes it, with self-service for agents and a copilot that can do what a planner can. Explore a sample organisation on day one.